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[资料] P3 BCG模型的学习

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发表于 2016-4-25 21:58:02 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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P3在P level里来说,相对比较容易,这是指通过率上来看,但有些同学不擅长以讨论占比比较大的考试,往往在做题时,讨论都是干巴巴的,今天以BCG模型来做个抛砖引玉,尝试分享一下如何通过历年真题来学习P3的知识。

关于BCG模型的相关考题,拿出三次的考卷中的题目来看一下:
201012Q1
(a)  In the context of Shoal plc’s corporate-level strategy, assess the contribution and performance of ShoalFish,ShoalPro and ShoalFarm. Your assessment should include an analysis of theposition of each company in the Shoal plc portfolio. (15 marks)
201212Q1
(a) Analyse the performance of each of the four companiesdescribed in the scenario and assess each company’s potential future contribution to the EA Group portfolio of businesses. (24 marks)
Professional marks will be awarded in part (a) for theclarity and structure of the answer. (4 marks)
201412Q1
(a) Write an independent report which:
(i) Evaluates the current performance and contribution of each of the three currentoperating companies in The RoamGroup portfolioand assesses their relative significance in its future strategy. (21 marks)
综合看这三道题目,黄色mark出来的字体,在三次requirements里都有,让你评估每个BU的业绩,贡献。注意portfolio,可能你还不确定用什么知识点,但我们说如果站在母公司的角度(看红色mark),你去评估自己集团下的BU的投资组合,所涉及到的模型只有BCG,所以在读requirements的时候,可以暂定可能用BCG后面根据题目再调整。

下面以201012的题目为基础来说明一下,如何做题与分析答案。
分值分配,其实我一直强调大家开始做题时不要强调看多少分,因为我们暂时没有这个能力,你没有思考与答题的能力,何来看多少分答多少题,但我现在强调分值是希望能帮助大家看答案如何计划,你平时做题时不可能每题都象考试一样全写出来,更多的时候可能是列出大纲与关键词。
15分,三个BU,每个BU5分的分配标准;既然考BCG,那可能的得分点是:
- Market share 要有数字算出来说明高还是低的
-Market growth要有数字算出来说明高还是低的
-conclusion
-Performance
-Contribution
一旦确定了答案大纲后,建议大家每个BU都按这个逻辑顺序写,就没必要变来变去了,毕竟我们是在考试,不考虑文章的优美。
三年的考题,肯定是给了不同的情境故事的,你需要根据不同的故事组织语言,不能自己只是背模型,那肯定是得不到满意的分数的。

再来说,如何分析答案,有些同学觉得P3题目太长,答案内容太多,没什么思路,或者觉得没什么要算的,看完case直接看答案,看了答案自己觉得都懂,没有去总结,结果往往考试不过。分析答案的所谓套路,你还是需要练的,或者说你还是要给自己时间去思考题目的答案的,考官为什么这么写,很多同学在这上面很欠缺。
201012答案为例来分析一下:我解释说明的地方用黄色
考官三个BU,分成三大块
ShoalFish
FISH这个BU再分了三段,这三段我先不断开,直接在段内标注关键点。
APESTEL analysis of ShoalFish would focus on the fact that it is fishing in anarea where fish stocks are rapidly declining (environmental) and it isincreasingly exposed to government intervention and restrictions (political). 前面的内容分析了一下FISH的外部环境影响,因为requirements里要求你顺便分析一下position. 后面这句话,开始说market share, market growth   It is arelatively small player (12% market share) in a large, but declining marketplace (5% over two years).   接着提到了performance   Profits are declining, although ShoalFish appearto have arrested the decline in the profi t margin. The 2009 gross profi tmargin (4·9%) shows an increase over the 2008 fi gure (4·7%). This may meanthat the company has been able to bring operating costs in line with thedeclining turnover.
Interms of the Boston Box, it has the characteristics of a dog, a company with asmall market share in a declining market.下结论,在BCG里是什么位置,同时告诉人家dog的定义是什么  However, Shoal plc perceivesthat there are important synergies between ShoalFish and the other companies inthe Shoal plc portfolio. For example, it helps secure a signifi cant proportionof the raw materials required by ShoalPro. ShoalPro is also ShoalFish’s maincustomer, accounting for 40% of the company’s catch. ShoalFish also has anintended role following the purchase of the Captain Haddock group ofrestaurants. Shoal plc would like ShoalFish to directly supply the CaptainHaddock restaurants and so potentially reduce raw material costs at CaptainHaddock.后面这段完全是对dog的位置以及如何处置,或者说dog对整个group的贡献作了说明。我们在上课时也重点提到了这点。大家要关注考官答案如何结合案例来说的,你会经常看到考官说:apply to the case。就是提醒你要结合案例,不要只背模型。
下面这段就是详细讨论S应该如何对待FISH这个BU,提了一个建议,反正是讨论,没有实质性的结论,你能想到什么就写什么。这部分也是作为dog可能会给企业带来的贡献是什么。
Shoalplc needs to look carefully at the viability of maintaining this fleet. Theyare operating in an area where owner-skippers are very common (almost half ofthe boats in the western oceans are owned and operated by the boat’s captain).There may be an opportunity for ShoalFish to sell, lease or rent theirships, perhaps to individual owners, with the promise of guaranteed sales toShoalPro (and potentially Captain Haddock). 前面是建议一,后面是建议二 Alternatively, they could toleratedeclining performance from this part of the portfolio, in the knowledge that itforms an important part of the supply chain for other companies in theportfolio.
啰嗦两句,关于考官的结论,考官认为FISHDOG,而在分析做题时,有同学提出这是一个cash cow,我个人赞同,你考官如何判断市场份额是低呢?FISH作为六大捕捞公司之一也不算小了,所以判断是cash cow一点问题也没有,但可能cash cow也是一个走到末端,即将变成dogcash cow了,所以你谨慎起来,在判断成cow后,依然可以多带一笔,可能会成为dog,那企业又将注意哪些。
ShoalPro
第二个BU
ShoalProis a profi table and expanding organisation. A signifi cant percentage of itsraw fish supply is currently provided by ShoalFish, but this percentage isdeclining as it increasingly processes fi sh for other companies. It is in amature, but still expanding (+2% from 2007 to 2009) market-place where it holdsa signifi cant (40%) and slightly increasing market share. Gross profi tmargins are improving slightly (from 10% in 2007 to 10·6% in 2009), suggestingthat costs are increasing at a slower rate than revenues. 这段是关于market share & market growth,performance
Itsconsistent profi tability would classify this business, using Boston Boxterminology, as a cash cow. A company with a signifi cant market share in a lowgrowth market. 下判断
APESTEL analysis would focus on the fact that ShoalPro factories are in a regionwhich attracts national grants due to high local unemployment (political andeconomic). This reduces operating costs and the persistence of highunemployment suggests that a local skilled workforce is still accessible toShoalPro (socio-cultural). Analysis suggests that ShoalPro is an important partof the Shoal plc portfolio and should be retained and maintained. 通过PRO所处外部环境来讨论未来对公司的贡献。
最后一个BU不再分析。考官的基本思路就出来了。201412Q1的题目,因为case里提出了还要看母公司的作用,所以以BCG为主,又分析了母公司的rationale。有机会再给大家分析那年的考题。

最后关于performance的分析做个补充,在P3P5里,关于业绩其实不会象F7/F9那样一套标准的ratios需要你拿出来计算。我们看得最多的可能就是利润表,以及资产负债表的几个数据。象201012Q1这题里,就只给了利润率,因此分析就不用走得太远,也不需要算太深,甚至现成的提供了,需要你结合case来分析业绩到底如何。
那一般拿到利润表,我们有几个关键点是一定要关注的
-profitrate(margin, operation profit, PBIT)
-salesgrowth. 这类趋势比较。 一般来说,销售增长超过成本的增长,利润会增长;反之利润下降。
-收入,成本,费用的构成比,即收入分几类,哪类占主要的,这类的盈利状况如何等。
-efficiency效率的比较,比如人均收入,人均成本这类效率类的指标。
-注意benchmarking的比较

本文由中博诚通May Shen撰稿,转载请注明出处。
发表于 2016-6-13 03:28:35 | 显示全部楼层
英语书写速度很重要,如果时间非常充裕,我相信大部分人能通过P3
发表于 2016-6-14 19:48:08 | 显示全部楼层
May老师整理的很好!
对于学员来说,在复习的时候,如何能够根据自己的思路去整理答案,然后去对比真题的答案思路去查漏补缺是很重要的。
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